Draft day is right around the corner so lets hit another key position, the wide receiver.

25. Torrey Smith (Bal)

In 2011 Torrey Smith really burst onto the scene as a deep threat. Last year he remained a deep threat but very inconsistent; Nine times last year he scored single digit fantasy points in a week. Now this year he is being thrust into the #1 WR slot for Joe Flacco, in an offense that refuses to overuse Ray Rice and one that has lost their stud TE for the year. Torrey is going to get a lot of targets.

24. Desean Jackson (Phi)

He doesn’t go over the middle and he hasn’t even averaged four catches a game throughout his career. Plus he seems to get injured far too often. He can make some big plays but he is not someone you want to rely on to help you win a fantasy week.

23. James Jones (GB)

Will Jones help Roders out again? Your guess is as good as mine. I would expect very inconsistent numbers out of the Packers WR core this year.

22. Danny Amendola (NE)

Someone has to step up for Tom Brady.

21. Dwayne Bowe (KC)

I’m not sure how much better Alex Smith is than Matt Cassel is but he should be at least marginally better and they have more weapons surrounding Bowe to spread the field for him. The only thing that worries me is that the Chiefs just signed him to the fourth largest contract among all wide-outs.

20. Tavon Austin (Stl)

Get ready, this kid is going to be an absolute monster. He’s 4-1 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year so, yah go grab that before word gets out. Provided he can stay healthy he could be better than Percy Harvin right out of the gate.

19. Antonio Brown (Pitt)

I expect a bounce back year from the Steelers. Their running game should be better than it was last year which should buy Roethlisberger some time to throw. Brown is the proven #1 in Pittsburgh but they also have some other nice weapons to help spread the field for him.

18. Steve Smith (Car)

Cam Newton needs to be better this year and if that’s the case Steven Smith could post some huge numbers. Even at 34, he has proven to be one of the toughest and most consistent guys in the league. Worst case scenario Smith catches 70+ balls for 1100+ yards. Best case scenario 90+ for 1300+ yards.

17. Hakeem Nicks (NYG)

Nicks has certainly had his share of injury problems but when he can remain on the field he is a gigantic target for Eli Manning. He is only listed at 6’1 but he plays like he is 6’6. He is only 25 years old and is still getting better. With Victor Cruz signed up across from him he could be worth having as a keeper for years to come.

16. Mike Wallace (Mia)

Wallace is obviously going to have some ups and downs this year. With a young signal caller and some other not quite totally reliable options around him he will see a lot of extra defensive coverage. But he is one of the fastest guys in the league and has a bit of an unfair reputation as a long ball guy. Out of his 119 targets last season just 64 of them traveled 20+ yards in the air. Sure that is more than half. But he doesn’t avoid the middle like some of the other guys on the list.

15. Vincent Jackson (TB)

Someone please explain to me why everyone else has this guy as a top 10 fantasy receiver? He is a long ball guy that doesn’t catch many balls and gets hurt. He is now 30 years old and despite having his best statistical season of his career last season the Bucs are a bit of a fraud. If VJax catches 65 balls for 1100 yards this year I would be shocked.

14. Randall Cobb (GB)

Cobb is a quick guy that exploded last year thanks to Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is going to make Cobb a lot of money sometime soon. With Jennings and Driver gone and Nelson returning from offseason knee surgery, Cobb will be relied on heavily again. He will also see some plays out of the backfield and can earn you big points in any given week, but can also get lost on a field in which A-Ro spreads the ball out so much.

13. Reggie Wayne (Ind)

Andrew Luck wasted no time getting to know Reggie Wayne. With Peyton at the helm Wayne put together just one season with more catches and just one season with more receiving yards than he did in year 1 of Andrew Luck. Granted he also had 21 more targets than any other season of his career. Luck will need to spread the ball out more to be successful but Wayne is his go to guy and he is going to have another stellar year.

12. Victor Cruz (NYG)

Last season injuries and a slumping Eli derailed the Giants in the later half of the season. This year Nicks is back to help spread the field and create more opportunities for Cruz.

11. Marques Colston (NO)

I expect big things out of the Saints offense this year. They are going to be playing pissed off all year and along with Jimmy Graham, Colston will be the featured weapon. While Brees does spread the ball out quite a bit I fully expect Colston to have a near career season. 90 catches for 1300 yards and 10 touchdowns seems perfectly reasonable to me.

10. Wes Welker (Den)

Peyton Manning is going to quickly fall in love with Wes Welker. Some people may say that he will be fighting for the ball too much with Decker and Thomas that it hurts his value. I would say that those guys spreading the field makes Welker so much more valuable. He should be able to find holes in the defense allowing Manning to hit him on the run underneath and in the seem.

9. Andre Johnson (Hou)

Just when people thought Dre was getting old and becoming injury prone, he posts 112 catches for nearly 1600 receiving yards. The problems with drafting Dre is A. he only had 4 touchdowns last year and B. the run game that propels that offense and allows him to get open is probably going to be much less proficient this year. Arian Fosters’ workload should catch up to him this year making it much more difficult for Matt Schaub to find and open Andre Johnson. 100 catches and 1400 yards is a reasonable expectation but the touchdowns are likely to still be down this year.

8. Demaryius Thomas (Den)

While Welker will benefit from Thomas stretching the field, Thomas will also benefit from defenses being forced to try and stop Welker from making plays underneath so much so that it will open up the over the top play to Thomas. With a 6’3 235lb frame that runs a 4.38 40 yard dash he is a budding beast at his position. His targets will probably drop but Peyton Manning is perhaps the most proficient passer in the league and with so many weapons surrounding him it will be very difficult for defenses to stop a guy with Thomas’ size, speed and strength all the while preventing the other guys from beating them.

7. Brandon Marshall (Chi)

I am a big fan of taking Marshall this year. While Cutler is incredibly inconsistent defenses will have to prepare for two monster wide receivers this year instead of just the one. Alshon Jeffery is going to take a lot of pressure off of Marshall’s back allowing him to get open easier. Things will be especially nice if Matt Forte can be a factor in the offense as well. On paper this could be the best offense this year but again Cutler scares me.

6. Larry Fitzgerald (Ari)

How weird is it that Larry Fitzgerald is probably the most underrated guy at the position this year? After an array of awful quarterbacks made his stats slip up big time the Cardinals brought in Carson Palmer. While that normally should sound awful for any team, for the Cardinals and especially Larry Fitz, Palmer is an enormous upgrade. Palmer will throw his fair share of shitty passes and INTD’s but he will also be able to get Fitzgerald the ball and give him a chance to make something happen. Don’t sleep on Fitzgerald this year.

5. Roddy White (Atl)

4. Julio Jones (Atl)

These two guys play off each other as well as any duo in the league. Matt Ryan might not be the best but he is still getting better and learning the ways of the NFL. These two guys can beat defenses in a variety of ways and when you mash in Tony Gonzales and a run game to help them get open they are both locks for monster seasons. Expect both guys to catch nearly 90 balls for 1200 yards and score double digit touchdowns. The Falcons offense is going to be a force this year and these two are the main reasons why.

3. Dez Bryant (Dall)

Last year after Week 10 Tony Romo said that Dez had come “180 degrees”. After that he showed tremendous focus. In the following seven games he caught 47 passes for 792 yards and 9 touchdowns. Last season Dez accumulated 1382 yards on 92 receptions. That was quite the leap forward from 928 yards on 63 receptions in 2011. The new focused Dez Bryant has now had a full offseason to work out and train and become even better. He is still 24 years old and capable of being the best this year.

2. AJ Green (Cin)

This guy is obviously a stud. The only thing holding him back is Andy Dalton. Even with Dalton Green caught 97 balls for 1350 yards with 11 touchdowns in his sophomore season. For Green to really excel Jermaine Gresham is going to have to start living up to his hype to at least keep teams from triple covering Green.

1. Calvin Johnson (Det)

The shocking number 1 pick. While I still don’t believe that Matthew Stafford is a good quarterback, he is competent enough to let Calvin have a shot at the ball and that is all he needs a chance. He can outjump outrun and outmuscle anyone in the secondary. He might even hit 2000 yards this year. But beware, despite his 1964 yard season a year ago he only reached the endzone five times... because Stafford isn’t that good of a quarterback. (Stafford by the way only threw 20 touchdowns while he threw 17 picks despite having Calvin Johnson. He also ranked 15th in QBR, 17th in yards per attempt and 17th in win probability added.) Calvin Johnson is just that good.

mlz

Thursday, August 15, 2013