The running back may be the most important position to fill on your fantasy roster. If you can get a top tier guy you can really have an advantage over your opponents. But there are plenty of guys out there that could burst onto the scene with a monster year. I have ranked the top 25 running backs as far as their fantasy potential. While #1 probably won’t surprise you some of the others might.

24/25. Stevan Ridley/Shane Vereen (NE)

For some reason Ridley has wound up inside the top 15 in most fantasy football running back rankings. While he could end up getting a lot of carries to help set the pace for Tom Brady and the lack of talent Brady has been surrounded with, odds are he will end up splitting carries with Shane Vereen. Vereen could even take over the majority of the load by the time Week 1 of the regular season rolls around... especially if he continues to struggle holding onto the ball.

22/23. Eddie Lacy/Jonathan Franklin (GB)

Eddie Lacy was an absolute monster in college and joins a team with probably the most feared quarterback in the game. He should see a lot of playing time and a lot of open field. The only issues with him are that the Packers have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and they also drafted extremely talented Jonathan Franklin out of UCLA. One of these two guys are going to break out. Odds are it will be Lacy given his pinball-esk game. However Franklin’s football IQ and his quickness may earn him some extra playing time. At least one of these two guys should be a reliable option, however given the success of the passing game both of these guys may demand a roster spot and both may excel when on the field. However these two guys will take away from the others touches making both of them stellar acquisitions yet horribly inconsistent.

21. Reggie Bush (Det)

Come week 1 Reggie Bush will have not seen a field this spread out since his days at USC. Obviously the Lions like to pass the ball and in all leagues run by sane human beings you get a point per reception (PPR). Reggie should eclipse 1,200 total yards from scrimmage as a worst case scenario. Reggie Bush is basically the greatest Flex position player of the year. He should get enough carries to spread the field and plenty of screen passes and check downs to possibly make him an elite fantasy player. The downsides to drafting Reggie are the porous offensive line in Detroit, the young Mikel Leshoure leaching carries/touchdowns, and Reggie’s injury history. Bush probably should become a rich mans version of Darren Sproles but before drafting him realize that there is quite a few risks to go along with the potential rewards.

20. Lamar Miller (Mia)

I have had my eye on Lamar Miller since his days at The U. Now he assumes the role of the donkey in the Miami backfield. The glass half empty view of his value is skewed by how poor that offensive line is, while the glass half full view is that he is one of the more talented players at his position. He could have a breakout year or he could waste more of his budding years behind one of the leagues worst blocking bunch.

19. Le’Veon Bell (Pitt)

Another incredibly inconsistent offensive line blocking for a young kid with a lot of talent/heart. Bell was an absolutely workhorse at Michigan State and he will be again this year with the Steelers. The downside is that their o-line sucks ass. The upside is that Ben Roethlisberger is one of the best QB’s in the NFL and his ability to make plays will open things up for Bell. Plus there is a benefit that Bell is going to get a ton of carries this year.

18. Montee Ball (Den)

Why did the other teams allow the Broncos to draft this guy in the second round? Arguably the most NFL ready running back, of this draft, joins a Denver team with a loaded pass offense to spread the field for him. He was an absolute beast at Wisconsin and can handle any amount of a heavy load in the NFL. He is going to put up some nice totals this season. I don’t want to sound like I am discrediting his talent when I say that Peyton Manning and the pass game will help him out dramatically because he will also help out Peyton Manning and the pass game dramatically. Drafting him will absolutely help you win your league. He is ranked as low as #18 because A. the guys ahead of him are that good, and B. Because Manning should have such incredible success with the passing game. Not to mention he is still a rookie battling for playing time amongst three other running backs. Ball should serve as a battering ram that extends many a drive.

17. DeMarco Murray (Dall)

Has this guy really become this underrated? Is this the best 17-20 at any position in fantasy history? Maybe back when all teams had one workhorse running back there were deeper fantasy football running back rankings but at the very least this is the best in recent memory.

DeMarco in his rookie rookie campaign, averaged 5.5 yards per carry while splitting time. Last season he provided another solid effort out of the backfield. The downside with him is that he has gotten hurt in each of his first two seasons. But if he were to remain healthy for an entire season he would likely put up superstar type numbers. I may end up saying this exact line for the next five years but this may be his year. Don’t miss out by trying to fill positions on your team when he is on the board in the middle to later rounds of your draft. This is probably the best #17 running back in fantasy football history.

16. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax)

MJD may have missed the final 11 games of 2012 but he still comes into camp as the Jags #1 running back. The guy that exceeded after assuming his job in 2012, Rashad Jennings, is in Oakland now, meaning that the Jags #1 RB spot is MJD’s alone. Justin Forsett will be the guy to leach some time from him given that the Jags will move to a zone blocking scheme this year and Forsett spent time succeeding in a zone blocking scheme with Houston the past few years. But the job is MJD’s to lose and given how last year went things can only get better for him.

Last year MJD was a contract hold-out and wound up getting hurt most likely because he wasn’t in playing shape due to the hold-out. This year he will be ready to excel once again and should put up some nice numbers. The problem with him is that; A. He is obviously over the hill and may get injured again and B. Has a really poor offensive line in front of him. Even if MJD does show up ready to roll through the competition he may be stymied by his own guys. Either way getting him as the #16 running back is an absolute steal. He is only this low on the list because while he may turn out to be a stud he may also become a real headache. Random fact... Denard Robinson is listed as the Jags #3 running back. That could produce some interesting packages and could create a reason to watch this team.

15. Chris Johnson (Tenn)

Early in the season last year it appeared as though this guy’s career was over. Then he churned out some really stellar performances. In a year following his 2,006 yards he struggled mightily gaining just 1,364 yards. Then to start last season he looked like his career might be over when he began in Week 1 vs New England with 11 carries for 4 yards. Then in Week 2 @SD he totaled 8 carries for 14 yards and in Week 3 vs Det (OT) he posted 14 carries for 24 yards. In Week 4 CJ2k provided us with what at the time seemed like a fluke game in which he recorded 141 yards on the ground @Hou. It became especially fishy when he followed that performance up with a 15 carries for 24 yards performance the next week @Minn. Just when you thought he was donezo he posted weeks with 80 or more rushing yards in seven of the Titans final eleven games, including four with 100+ yards and one with 99 yards.

This year Chris Johnson remains an enigma but he is an enigma with some real value. The Titans may not help him out though. Their inexperience at the quarterback position won’t help spread the field and their run block isn’t exactly anything to write home about.

Expect inconsistency when drafting Chris Johnson. He will rip off a few long touchdown runs, as he always does, but he will also have a few weeks with less than 50 yards gained. His ability in the open field should be the brightest spot when drafting him. In a normal human being league (a PPR league), he should create some points when they check down to him or run screen-plays for him that also benefit the young play caller in Jake Locker. But when they fall behind he could end up with some weeks with very low points.

14. Frank Gore (SF)

Frank Gore may have had his share of incomplete seasons but he has started 16 games in each of the past two seasons, recording 1,200+ yards on the ground in each of those seasons. This year he will look to make it three straight complete/solid seasons.

The scary part of drafting him includes the fact that second year QB Colin Kaepernick may actually be a fluke. Also Gore is one of three very capable running backs for the 49ers. While they should run far more run plays than the average team, if LaMichael James and/or Kendall Hunter get hot they could leach carries from Gore. Also if mobile quarterback Kaepernick were to go down with an injury then Colt McCoy would be thrust into a starting role. That would end up with nine men in the box on every play to shut Gore down. However as long as the 49ers can stay healthy the addition of Anquan Boldin, and Kaepernick gaining another year of experience should result in a field that is much more wide open for Frank Gore and the 49ers backfield.

 

13. Steven Jackson (Atl)

Despite being stuck on a poor St. Louis Rams team, Jackson has managed to rush for 1,000+ yards in eight consecutive seasons, his only yearly effort that resulted in less was his rookie campaign. Now he joins a Falcons team with a loaded passing game that should open up the offense for a guy like Ste Jax to shine.

The stats from 2012 say that the Falcons had one of the worst run blocking teams in the NFL but a lot of that is debunked by Michael Turner’s old fat self being the lead back on that team. For a little bit of insight, Michael Turner still doesn’t have a job for the 2013-14 season. While the passing game and three deep ground game may take away from his totals, Jackson may succeed as well as Larry Fitzgerald will on a team with a quarterback in a few years when he finds his way out of Arizona.

12. CJ Spiller (Buf)

While the Bills struggle to figure out who will be their quarterback, for the upcoming season, they know who will be their number one running back. However, the Bills run block ranked outside the top 20 last season. They also are in the midst of struggling with figuring out who their QB will be as well as their method of attack. Meaning, that Spiller may end up being the most memorable player in the 2013-14 season he may also be remembered as a nice depth draft pick. We will know what this kid is made of upon the completion of this season.

11. Doug Martin (TB)

ESPN and the fools all have Martin as a real sleeper. ESPN actually has him as their #5 RB. Yes he has earned the workload of a stud given the Bucs’ short bench in the RB position. But he is still young and is on a team that is destined to disappoint this year.

10. Alfred Morris (Wash)

The same sort of goes for this guy. However Morris has proven himself to be the #1 RB in Washington despite a Mike Shanahan coaching job that typically ruins fantasy football lives in the RB position. However Morris averaged 124 yards on the ground over the course of the final six games of the 2012 season. Even in the Redskins playoff game Morris averaged 5 yards per carry against a stout Seahawks defensive group.

Did you know that Alfred Morris rushed for over 1,600 yards last year? While he should have a monster season spreading the offense, providing rest for RGIII, he will ultimately end up with 1,500 rushing yards and over 10 touchdowns on the ground.

The issue with him is that he doesn’t pose a big threat in the passing game. However he is young enough to work on that aspect of his game and Morris should put together one of the better seasons this year but his success hinges on RGIII’s success.

9. Trent Richardson (Cle)

This kid is a beast. This young offense is going to be one year better. He will top 1,000 yards on the ground and catch 50 balls. He is a tremendous pick if you are in a keeper league. He is only going to get better and that offense can’t get any worse.

8. Darren McFadden (Oak)

If you remember correctly you will remember the fact that in five seasons Darren hasn’t played in 16 games even once. However, his approach to the game could result in a stud season. The Raiders o-line has failed McFadden early in his career but his ceiling makes him worth a keeper look. However, the Raiders have been exceptionally bad, blocking wise and McFadden’s blocking crew may prevent him from having a stud type season. But he could also end up being a championship swinging piece. On paper he has all the pieces to be an absolute workhorse and one of the best backs in the league, he just needs someone to block for him.

He has said he never felt comfortable in last years zone blocking scheme resulting in just over 700 yards on the ground. This year they brought in two new lineman and will be changing to a power blocking scheme. Last year the Raiders actually allowed just 27 sacks, tied with New England for the fewest. So maybe they aren’t all that bad just McFadden never felt comfortable and their scheme sucked. Now they have brought in a couple new guys we could see a dramatic change from this Raiders run game, and he will also catch his fair share of balls as they will look to get him the ball in the open field as often as possible.

7. Jamaal Charles (KC)

Jamaal Charles has shown the ability to be a top tier running back, when he stays on the field. Last year he topped 1,500 yards. The year before he was injured early but the year before that he rushed for just under 1,500 yards. In the past he has been stuck on a team with really no offense other than himself and he has been forced to split carries with other guys. This year he will carry the full load. Now that they have a quarterback that might be able to throw a ball down the field things should only get better for this speedy 26 year old. Not to mention they just used the #1 pick to draft offensive lineman Eric Fisher that should open things up even more for Charles and the offense. While he hasn’t gotten the touchdown numbers, that a fantasy owner would like to see, with the additions to the offense this year those numbers should be far more than satisfying to his owners.

6. Marshawn Lynch (Sea)

Beast Mode is certainly no fluke. You can chalk him up for 1,500 yards on the ground and double digit touchdowns. It’s a real shame Seattle lost Harvin to injury. It would have been really interesting to see what Lynch can do with the defense not necessarily focusing in on him. But that young offense is now one year older and one year more experienced. They have high expectations and will rely on Lynch heavily.

5. Arian Foster (Hou)

I would be very worried if I was an Arian Foster owner this year. Last year he carried the ball over 350 times and had nearly 400 touches. Also his yards per carry average has dropped in each of the last two years. His extremely heavy workload seems to be catching up with him. With Ben Tate already nicked up he is going to have to carry that offense once again. This may be the year he breaks down. I would not recommend drafting him he scares me far too much.

4. Matt Forte (Chi)

Durability will be a major factor in the eyes of most on draft night. However, Forte finds himself on a team with a passing attack that has no ceiling, if only the offensive line could block for Cutler for a few seconds. However the Bears did address their most obvious problem in the offseason. They used their first round pick to draft right guard Kyle Long and they spent the most money on left tackle Jermon Bushrod. Yes, that makes that crew far from spectacular but Bushrod helped protect Drew Brees in a Super Bowl winning year and a year in which Brees broke the single season passing yards record. Meanwhile Kyle Long has spent his college career run blocking for the Oregon Ducks. That is one of the most difficult jobs in the college game. He will come in with a wealth of knowledge and a great brain that should elevate this offensive line.

As far as the durability of Matt Forte goes, forget whatever you think. He has played in five NFL seasons with the Bears and for the first three seasons he played in all 16 games. In year four he did get injured and only played in 12 games. Now while you may think he missed a lot of the season last year he actually managed to play in 15 of the 16 games on the schedule. This year the offensive line will be better, creating an environment in which it becomes far less likely he will get injured. Also the better o-line will allow for Jay Cutler to pass much more effectively opening the field for Forte. I don’t want to get too ahead of myself since this isn’t the WR preview but Brandon Marshall is a proven stud that stands 6’4” 230lbs and will be starting across from second year Alshon Jeffery, whom will become much better with the better protection and more open field and he stands at 6’3” 216lbs. Not to forget the rather large Bennett duo; the Bears have an exceptionally good chance of racking up a lot of yards and scoring a lot of points. There are a ton of reasons to like Forte this year. I have even talked myself into moving him up eight spots from my original rankings.

3. LeSean McCoy (Phi)

Along with Forte, McCoy is one of the most underrated running backs on the board. People seem to have forgotten about him after last years down season. But McCoy is capable of things almost nobody else is. He is the closest thing to Barry Sanders that we have seen. His quickness and agility is breathtaking. Two years ago he topped 1,600 total yards and 20 touchdowns. He has had a season in which he nearly caught 80 balls. This year Chip Kelly is going to implement far more runs and McCoy is going to benefit big time. There is no ceiling on his numbers this year. I could see him recording 1,000 yards on the ground and through the air. I could see him catching 100 balls. I could see him rushing for 1,600 yards. I could see him topping 20 touchdowns again. All of those probably won’t happen but he is good enough to make it happen and now has the system around him to accomplish anything.

2. Ray Rice (Balt)

1,600+ total yards in each of the last four seasons. That’s rather remarkable when you factor in how incredibly underused he is. While a guy like Arian Foster has posted similar numbers Rice has also touched the ball roughly 100 times less. For fantasy purposes that may seem like Foster is the smarter pick but Rice has done more with less touches and will be much more fresh despite playing into February. Rice has one of the better run blocking o-lines in front of him as well as probably the best fullbacks in the game leading the way for him. As Torrey Smith and Joe Flacco gain experience they will continue to stretch the field for him opening up lanes for Rice on the ground and underneath passes in the open field. Rice is a lock to have another monster fantasy year and if they actually give him the touches he deserves he could have a record breaking year and could win your league by himself.

1. Adrian Peterson (Minn)

Peterson is the obvious #1 here. He is a threat to rush for 2,000+ yards every year and seems to have the build to handle any load. He is the closest thing to Lebron that the NFL has. The Vikings acquisition of Greg Jennings should help spread the field and open things up more for Peterson. Odds are he won’t gain another 2,000 yards on the ground but expect at least 2,000 total yards and 15 touchdowns. He may not wind up as the #1 back this season but he is without a doubt the safest/most fun pick.

mlz

Sunday, August 11, 2013