With new teams and new drivers there are plenty of guys that can make the Chase this year and if they make it they have a chance. Let's take a look at how they should finish the regular season this year.

1. Jimmie Johnson

Ole' five time has now gone two years without a championship, since losing last years to the younger Keselowski. I think that is really going to piss him and the rest of that #48 team off. You can make an argument that once you win so many in a row you start to take them for granted, but when you lose that first one you want to win even more. Now take that and add in coming oh so close last year, that team is going to want it.

I think this #48 team is really going to dominate this season. When you have the best crew chief, and you are driving a new car, you have an enormous advantage, not to mention his driving skills. With the added fuel, I think they win six maybe seven races this regular season and boast a nice lead going into the Chase. 

2. Kyle Busch 

Kyle probably has the most to prove this year. After missing the Chase a year ago and finishing the season with only one trip to victory lane, Kyle will have a bounce back year. That team is going to get four wins this year. They are going to be strong at the races they always are. Getting over the hump in the postseason is another demon all together, but Kyle is going to get some breaks this year, or at least avoid the bad breaks.

3. Denny Hamlin

He's just flat out too good a race car driver to not finish near the top of the standings every year. He finished with five wins last year and I'd almost be surprised if he doesn't match that again this year.

4. Clint Bowyer

Finished last year with a bang and ended up getting a second place finish in the final standings. I think this crew and team, Michael Waltrip Racing, is trending up. I think Clint has a solid year with a win maybe two, but if you read my NASCAR Preview you know Clint is my pick to win the championship this season.

5. Martin Truex Jr.

Speaking of MWR, Martin Truex is going to get off the schneid this year. He hasn't won in 153 Sprint Cup points races. He will win at least once this year guaranteed.

6. Greg Biffle

I think the Biff is going to struggle without his wingman Kenseth a big this year. That being said he is still a great driver. He's going to be safely in the Chase this year, but might not have the wins/top 5's of a year ago.

7. Kasey Kahne

A lot of people are picking him to win the Cup this year. I'm not convinced. I think he's a good driver but he hasn't been anywhere near consistant enough to compete for a championship. I think we see more of the same from him this year.

8. Brad Keselowski

The reigning champ will suffer a minor hangover throughout the regular season. He should get a win or two and he should find himself fairly safely in the Chase throughout the year. But he's not going to have the year he has last year. I think he will compete in the Chase but as far as the regular season goes 8th feels right.

9. Tony Stewart

You know Smoke will be heavily involved in a lot of races this year, but he needs to minimize the poor finishes to remain truly competitive.

10. Carl Edwards

He choked last year, but two crew chiefs (and counting) later and I think he might have enough to get back into the postseason. Carl needs to get back to racing to win. He got caught being passive by Tony Stewart during the Chase and blew that championship. He needs to be more aggressive and get back to his old self. I think he does that in spots this year, and eventually rides a hot finish to a Chase berth.

Wildcard 1. Joey Logano 

I can't help but think Joey Logs is going to win some races this year. I have him as the #1 wildcard so we are talking possibly three wins this year on a new team. I think he needed a change of scenery as bad as anyone could. Joe Gibbs Racing had high hopes for him and obviously had their hopes set far too high too early on. I think he is going to make them pay, and he starts this year.

Wildcard 2. Jeff Gordon

Yes Jeff is going to need to scramble again to make the Chase. This year it's going to come down to wins. He hasn't been able to receive the checkered flag first very often lately. I think he has some struggles early but ultimately gets that much needed second win, and points bump.

Outside Looking In

Matt Kenseth
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Kevin Harvick
Ryan Newman
Marcos Ambrose

All of these guys could get hot at the right time and find themselves competing for a championship but I don't see it happening for them this year.

Starting with Kenseth, he's going to have some trouble adjusting to his new team. As much as they'd like to welcome him with open arms, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin are two of the most competitive guys in the circuit. There is going to be some friction and some troubles this season. 

Stenhouse, has a lot to prove. He's a 25 year old rookie who has dominated the Nationwide Series. I could see him splashing onto the scene, taking some chances and winning enough races to get in as a wildcard. 

Harvick is a lame duck. Maybe not now, but at some point joining Stewart Haas Racing will start to creep into his mind.

Speaking of SHR, Newman is out of the Chase for the second straight year. That might spell the end of his tenure in the 39 car. He signed a one year extension after this past season and with Harvick coming to town Newman might be squeezed out.

And finally Marcos Ambrose. You know he is going to win at least one road course race. It's just a matter of if he can points race as well as he did at the end of last season, or if he can breakthrough on an oval and get in as a wildcard.

This year is going to be a blast, I'm excited as hell and I hope you are too.

mlz
Wednesday, February 6, 2013