2013 NFL Divisional Round Picks
The second round of the playoffs is here. After a
rather weak first round we think we may be in store for some great
football all around. Let's get to it.
Saturday Games
Denver -9.5 vs Baltimore
4:30pm
CBS
mlz -
Baltimore
Everyone seems to have forgotten about Peyton
Manning's spotty playoff record. Yes he has one ring but don't
forget about all those one and dones he has had. Not to mention
that if he can't win tomorrow he got the Broncos exactly as far as
Tim Tebow did except he didn't bring the city of Denver the joy of
a playoff victory. I think they will survive Baltimore.
The Ravens aren't looking too bad. Flacco had himself a pretty good
game last week and will need another if he has any hopes of
advancing. One glaring thing to take away from last week is the
Ravens scored 24 points despite two Ray Rice fumbles. Expect a big
week from Rice, who will be looking to make up for those two
fumbles last week. Baltimore's defense might be old and banged up
but they are playing fired up and they are playing for Ray Lewis.
But they will come up just short of the win. Broncos 24-21.
ap3 -
Baltimore
This is Denver's first true test since week 9 at Cincinnati. Yes, the Broncos are at home, and yes, they dominated the Ravens 4 weeks ago in Baltimore, but this is a little different. Peyton Manning gets to play his first playoff game without his security blanket. He's home, but he's not home. He's outside. He doesn't have Reggie Wayne or Marvin Harrison. He doesn't have Tony Dungy or the old guy with the cane walking around the sideline. Instead, he has Ray Lewis standing across the line of scrimmage looking like the terminator. The game is going to be low scoring and hard fought, with the better story prevailing. Baltimore 24 Denver 20. Upset Special.
San Francisco -2.5 vs
Green Bay
8pm
Fox
mlz: San Francisco
Lock
Alert! I understand the Packers are a public team, meaning people
like to bet on them. But why are people so high on them? They
looked good last week vs Minnesota, yes. But Minnesota showed them
everything they had to offer in Week 17. They should have looked as
good as they did. But don't have such a short term memory. This SF
defense is the best in the game and I would call the Packers o-line
the worst in the game but I'm afraid I will get death threats from
the Arizona Cardinals crew. Look for Aaron Rodgers to be on his
back more than Jennifer Anniston plowing her way through Hollywood.
49ers 27-17.
ap3: Green Bay
Lock Alert! So I get one of the best QBs in the league, against a second year QB with 7 games as a starter under his belt in his first playoff start, AND 2.5 points? Yes please. I think the Packers needed to not get the bye in the last week of the season. They are a rhythm team and I think the bye last season hurt them against the Giants. I was a huge Colin Kaepernick supporter in the regular season, but he is a dynamic player that turns the ball over. I expect this one to be fun to watch, Green Bay 34 San Francisco 24.
Sunday Games
Atlanta -2.5 vs Seattle 1pm Fox
mlz: Seattle
Upset Alert! I've been waiting 18 weeks to bet against the Falcons
this week. There's no doubt in my mind they choke. Matt Ryan is not
an elite QB. He's the Joe Flacco of the NFC only minus the playoff
wins. The only chance Atlanta has is to get a few huge plays by
Roddy White and/or Julio Jones. But given that Seattle has probably
the best secondary in the game I don't see that happening. Russell
Wilson and Pete Carroll have this team running on all cylinders and
shouldn't struggle much. Seattle 41-17..
ap3: Atlanta
Upset Alert! Damn straight I said upset alert even if I'm picking the team that's favored. You know why? Because this is the moment I've been waiting for all season, my opportunity to bet against Atlanta at home in the playoffs. Atlanta is the most fraudulent 13-3 team in NFL history, and the Seahawks have probably the most complete team in the playoffs. Atlanta looked awful with its starters playing the whole game against Tampa Bay in week 17, and Seattle won a tough road game last week in Washington. So really, why Atlanta? Because the Falcons are due. This is make or break time for Matty Ice. He falls into the Joe Flacco-Mark Sanchez category if they are one and done again. I think he steps up with his big play receivers and safety blanket Tony Gonzalez. Atlanta 28 Seattle 17.
New England -9.5 vs
Houston 4:30pm CBS
mlz: New
England
If you've watched any Pats games
this year you know they love to defer on the coin toss. If I'm them
I am changing that plan this week. I think the Pats could win this
in the first quarter. If they can get up 14-0 early Houston might
just check out. Conversely if things start to bounce Houston's way
early they absolutely can squeak out a win and move on. We will
have to wait and find out, but for the sake of the pick Pats win
31-17.
ap3: Houston
I think Arian Foster has a monster game. Houston underutilized him in the first meeting. Look for close to 200 yards for him both rushing and receiving. The game will come down to two things;
A crucial Matt Schaub mistake
A clutch Stephen Gostkowski field goal.
Lock it up. New England 34 Houston 31
Upset Record
mlz 2-7
(0-1 lw)
ap3 1-6 (1-0 lw)
Lock's Record
mlz 17-25
(1-0 lw)
ap3 13-14-1 (1-0 lw)
Overall Record
mlz 129-124-7 (2-2 Last week)
ap3 126-127-7 (4-0 Last week)
mlz
ap3
Friday, January 11, 2013